wxteam4's Blog

The winter storm that will be moving through the region this afternoon through Tuesday afternoon will bring some snow to the area, but the bigger threat for ice and heavier snow will remain to our south.  Winter weather advisories have been issued just south of Kansas City, including the cities of Harrisonville, Clinton, Sedalia, Butler, Paola and points south through noon tomorrow. 

Click here to see the latest advisories

Right now it looks like we could pick up around two inches of snow in the metro...but that might be a stretch unless all factors come together.  If they do come together a few isolated spots could MAYBE pick up three inches...but that is a pretty big stretch right now.  I'll go 1-3" of snow for the metro for now...and Mike will have the updated forecast at 5 and 6. 

Snow will start to develop throughout parts of Kansas as we progress through the afternoon as the moisture streams in the from the southwest...this will be the initial wave of snow that we'll see moving in sometime after 4 p.m. and lasting through the overnight hours.  Expect light snow for most of the event with a few brief periods of moderate snowfall (again, heavier snow the further south you go).  Tomorrow morning the next piece of energy will pass us by...this time with the better chance up to the north.  Northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas could pick up another inch or two of snow...and we might see another half inch at best here in the metro with this secondary shot of snow.  The timing of this secondary snow could be right during the morning commute...so plan accordingly tomorrow morning!  By Tuesday afternoon the storm should be pulling away from the region...with snow/flurries tapering off sometime during the afternoon hours at the very latest.

We will start our morning news at 4:30am tomorrow...so tune in to see if there are any closings that will impact your day.

Have a great rest of your day everyone!
-Karli

Bloggers...my apologies due to impending weather I'll put off the "Public Perceptions Of Weather Forecasts" discussion that I was going to share with you till later this week or next weekend...I want to talk about the forecast...

Northern MO woke up to a blanket of white this AM...1-almost 4" feel the closer you got to the IA border...here in the metro and south we had a huge issue with the dry air...and frankly were not in the right spot for this snow event...however that will probably be changing later tomorrow into tomorrow night and TUE AM...

This will not be the biggest storm but the way the winter is going beggers can't be choosy...and when you look at the weather maps tomorrow...if you're a novice you'll see a tremendous amount of high pressure (HP) covering the midsection of the nation...with high barometric pressure...which typically means good weather...well you have to remember that that the atmosphere is 3D...and what happens well above the surface dictates in some situations what happens at the surface...

So the set-up...much like what happened in N MO last night...is more related to what's happening within the jetstream above us...and it's obviously complicated...

There is a great discussion on the jetstream and little regions of faster moving air within the jetstream called jetstreaks...you need to think of the jetstream as a fluid...almost like a river of fast moving air...within that river the air doesn't blow at a continuous speed...there are pockets...much like a river of water, where the air accelerates and decelerates, essentially where the air speeds up or slows down...with me so far...good

OK now lets take it a step farther into Meteorology 101...when air enters a jetstreak it speeds up...as that occurs the air below it moves upwards to replace the previous air that was there...this creates rising motion...or in an area that we refer to as the right rear quad of a jetstreak or the entrance region...this type of rising motion also exists when the air in the left front quad of the jetstreak or the exit region...it's actually more complicated than this...as various areas of convergence and divergence aloft occur...plus you have various forces helping the cause...the Coriolis and pressure gradient force which for the sake of this blog are to complicated to get into...just click on the link in the paragraph before this one for a better explanation with pictures!

I hope you're not thoroughly confused yet...actually DH loves to explain this stuff...and I'm debating putting together a special graphic for tonight's late newscast...I'm concerned that it's too complicated for the general audience...so now lets talk sensible weather...the exact positioning of these jetstreaks is virtually impossible to precisely predict...even 12-24 hours out...so we'll just have to nowcast this one tomorrow PM into the evening and TUE AM...however these precip events are almost always underforecast by the models...they just in no way, shape or form can handle these very small (mesoscale) vertical motions that I referred to earlier...as a result they almost always forecast less precip than what happens...we also can recognize that the atmosphere is very cold so as a result the "fluff" factor of the snow will be on the high side...we normally talk about an 8-12:1 snow ratio...this has the potential of being closer to 15:1...that means it takes less QPF to produce more snowfall...like what happened in N MO this AM...

Our microcast models are not very impressive with the total snowfall...somewhere in the 1-2" range...however my feeling is that some areas have the potential of doubling those numbers...and I guess if everything worked out perfectly...maybe tripling those numbers...but let's not go there till later tomorrow if even necessary...I'm haunted by past underforecasts of snow with active jetstream/streak dynamics...

So what does this mean...right now I'm in that 2-4" mode of thought...and I agree with the ideas expressed by my friends @ EAX in their afternoon forecast discussion...again because of grid scale issues the models won't be able to pinpoint the precise location of these bands that may set up...they can hint at them...and that's what I'm seeing in the runs this afternoon...and especially from this AM...

Obviously this is not a slam dunk...I have some concerns about a lack of moisture in the area of the atmosphere where the snowflakes will actually form...the 18Z WRF for what it's worth actually dries out this layer by midnight tomorrow night...that won't help at all with upping the snow totals for us...and that's why EAX mentioned the potential of some FRZ drizzle...as moisture at the surface just condenses into drizzle and because the air aloft is dry...there are few flakes being created in the clouds...

Anyway those are my thoughts as of now...if need be I'll add additional thoughts in the comments section later this evening...should the new data have any significant changes...speculation on my part is that it'll show potential for what I just talked about...and not good location of the max QPF fields...

Have a great night...hopefully I didn't confuse you too much...also remember the blog format and everything else concerning our web page (even the web address) changes later this week (you'll be redirected for 3 months)...all my hard work and 100s if not 1000s of hours spent creating interesting blogs will disappear into the internet world never to be seen or read again...so sad...

I haven't seen the new blog platform yet...so I'm not sure how quickly I can learn things later this week...I'll do my best but no promises!

Joe

I thought instead of talking about the sensible weather...which we'll be updating during the newscasts...and yes there will be some off/on snow that may accumulate in the region over the next 4 days...that tonight I'd share with you a presentation that I put together for a seminar.

The seminar that I, as well as my colleagues from the other stations in town was called the Integrated Warning Team Workshop...it was championed by the NWS in Pleasant Hill and was held over the course of 3 days this week...

Those who attended were NWS personal from several offices here in the midwest...as well as the area TV stations, some fire department personal and the majority of Emergency Managers from around the region...

The workshops purpose was, amongst others, to get all these sides together and talk about how all of us can do a better job at communicating...from the TV side of things we were looking for ways to increase the dialogue during severe weather events...and to get us more information that we can pass along to you...the goal being that we would be more relavant on the air...and perhaps with some changes to some of the criteria used in the issuance of warnings to be on the air less...

There were many things talked about during the seminar...including the discrepancies of the sirens (outdoor warning systems). In other words cities/towns/counties that set off the sirens during severe weather for different things...I was shocked to learn that one county sets off the sirens for golf-ball sized hail...one community set's off a siren 4x's a day at certain times for their population...here's a shocker...in Lincoln, NE the sirens are set off only when a spotter sees a tornado...not when the NWS issues a tornado warning...so let's say it's 2AM in the morning...there's a rain wrapped tornado in the metro Lincoln area...guess what...despite a tornado warning issued...the sirens may not be triggered...talk about a disaster waiting to happen!

In order for the other members of the warning team to have an idea what we go through on the TV side of things I was asked to represent the TV stations in putting together a presentation concerning "A Day In the Life" if you will...also how that day changes in times of severe weather...I thought I'd share that presentation with you...

There are several other initiatives that I've developed that I hope will take root over the next several years...if not earlier...that we talked about as well...which, in my JOEworld vision could help revolutionize to a small degree how all TV stations cover severe weather...in essence deepening our relationship more with the local NWS offices...those I'll wait on sharing with you till another time...

Tomorrow I'll share with you some information that, imho, was eye-opening and scary as well...basically the results of seminar concerning how people get severe weather information...what people want in the forecasts...and interestingly how people interpret the forecasts that are issued...it was a nationwide internet survey...and we'll visit about the results tomorrow...

Have a great night...


Joe

Good Friday Afternoon Everyone!

The front moved through the viewing area earlier today and brought back seasonable temperatures to the metro.  Readings dipped into the upper 20s at KCI earlier this morning...but have rebounded slightly to 33 degrees as of 1 p.m.  During the late afternoon and evening hours we'll see a chance for some flurries or light snow across the region.  Most spots will just see a dusting, but a few isolated locations closer to the Iowa/Nebraska border could see some minor accumulations by this evening.  Beyond that, it will just be plain cold.  Later tonight expect temperatures to drop into the lower teens or even single digits in some spots.

As we move into the weekend, don't expect much warmer weather.  Temperatures on Saturday will struggle to reach 20 degrees in some locations, and by Sunday we'll see highs in the mid 20s.  Saturday evening into Sunday morning is when the next piece of energy will move through, but it will be far enough to the north that I'm not expecting much in the way of snowfall here in the metro(a very small chance).  The better chance, once again, lies up to the north closer to the Iowa/Nebraska border.

We'll start off next week cold, with highs still in the 20s, but by midweek we should see high temperatures back above freezing.  The models are still all over the place regarding next week's weather...yesterday it looked like Monday and Wednesday/Thursday we'd see some type of precipitation.  Now it looks like Monday isn't nearly as impressive and might stay dry and we might see rain on Wednesday.  Definitely something to keep an eye on over the weekend.  One thing we know for sure: COLD from now through Monday...then warmer towards the middle and end of next week.

For you snow lovers (and for myself since I predicted 27" of snow for the winter) hopefully we'll see some kind of snow in the near future!

Have a great weekend everyone...I'm going to check out the boats at the boat show and stay inside where it's warm!
-Karli

Our temperatures are going to drop tomorrow back to more seasonable levels.  A cold front will move through the viewing area overnight tonight and through tomorrow morning.  The cold air will lag slightly behind the actual front, so expect a morning or midday high in the upper 30s and lower 40s.  During the afternoon temperatures will drop off to the 20s with blustery conditions expected.  The return to colder air will continue through the weekend with highs struggling to reach the mid 20s both days.

The dry weather will continue through the weekend as well...and just like yesterday, I am still not overly excited for snow chances Monday.  We could get some accumulating snow, but again, I'm not expecting much(if any). 

The middle of next week looks a little warmer again with highs back above average for this time of the year.  Next week also holds more promise for the possibility of precipitation.  The models are all over the place beyond Monday so trying to pinpoint a day is somewhat pointless at the moment...however expect a little bit more than temperatures to talk about for next week.

I hope you all get a chance to get outside and enjoy the warm temperatures...I'm going home to go for a run with my dog, Luci Lu!  It's hard to find too many days in January that you can get outside comfortably, so I'm going to take advantage of the 60s!

Happy Thursday!
-Karli

Good Afternoon everyone!  I hope you are enjoying the nice sunny skies and temperatures already in the 40s in the metro.  Expect highs today to end up in the 50s in some spots and tomorrow we'll see 50s and even some 60s!  Winds are currently out of the west and northwest, but will shift directions more out of the southwest tonight into tomorrow, and that will also allow us to warm up before the next cold front arrives.

Right now it looks like the front will arrive sometime late Thursday night into Friday morning with the surge of cold air moving in behind it during the morning and midday hours on Friday.  This will probably result in a morning or midday high on Friday with temperatures falling during the afternoon hours.

Expect the chillier air to stick around through the weekend and into the middle of next week.  Highs should remain in the 20s or low 30s for Saturday and Sunday.  We could also see snow returning to the forecast late Sunday night into our Monday...but I am, as of right now, not expecting a big snow event(only going for 30% chance for now).  It is just too soon to tell what Monday will be like(snow amount wise)...but as the event gets closer we will absolutely give you a more definitive forecast!

Have a great rest of your Wednesday!
-Karli

Good Morning Everyone!

I hope everyone had a wonderful weekend...I just returned from a skiing trip to Breckenridge...and I finally got to see some significant snow this winter!  The weather was perfect there, sunny skies, light winds and temperatures in the 20s and 30s during the day.  There was also about 20+ new inches of snow leading right up to my trip, so I was pretty pleased with the conditions over all!  The best part about the trip was the fact I am still in one piece after tackling the mountains!!!

On to our weather...we had a chilly start to the day with some light snow and flurries around the viewing area.  Today won't warm up too much, but don't worry, the warm up will start tomorrow!  Clouds are still around for some locations as I type this, but those will be clearing out later today and into tonight.  High pressure will move over the region and clear things out and eventually the winds will shift more out of the southwest, allowing that warmup to take place.  Tomorrow highs will be back above average with readings in the 40s and 50s and the sunshine will be back as well.  The nice warm weather will continue into Thursday as well...with some spots ending up in the 60s.

Beyond Thursday the more seasonable temperatures will returns going into the weekend with highs back in the 20s and 30s.  Dry weather should continue through the rest of the week.

Enjoy the rest of your Tuesday everyone!

-Karli

For those that are familiar with my work on the air...the last thing I need to to pull a few more hairs out of the top of my head...these temperatures are just about ready to do that...we are on the precarious edge of warm air...but at the same time the chilly air is lurking very close by...as I described on the air last night and this morning...any wind shift caused by a trof moving through...or perhaps an upper level disturbance caught in the north flow...will cause our precarious edge to waver...and place us into or nearer a different airmass...I'll illustrate that for you on the surface map from the 1PM obs...showing the different airmasses around the region...another complicating factor are the clouds (where are they?) and the downsloping NW winds that now are blowing over snow free terrain to our NW...but those same winds are blowing over snowcover NE of the KC region...more of a westerly component to the wind...and the temps go up...more of a north component and the temps go down...

We'll get to all that in a minute...first I thought I'd post a satellite picture taken by the MODIS imager...this is a different look from the black and white pictures that I often show you...the detail is amazing and what you can make out is pretty cool...take a look...I've highlighted some of the features for you...

Pretty cool huh? Those cloud streets over MI are numerous lake effect snow showers..can you guess which way the wind was blowing at the time of the picture? Notice the cloud patterns over the eastern portion of Lake MI...pretty much WNW>ESE...you can even see some jet contrails mixed in with the cumulus clouds in the northern reachs of the lake. Also notice how much of the lake is still ice free...that means more lake effect snows are possible along the west side of MI for awhile...

Grand Rapids, MI is up to 88+" which is almost 50" above average...and they had a record yesterday for snow of 4.7"...wow! I'm showing the snow totals from the haves and have nots on the news tonight...watch @ 9PM in case you missed it yesterday...one case of have nots is Dodge City...dry with only 1.6" of snow...considering the temperature there now is 60....tough to get snow that way...Denver which is near 60 now has only had 15" of snow so far this season...that's rather low for them as well through the latter half of JAN...although they may get upslope snows next weekend....

Now let's get back to a battle of the airmasses...here is the 1PM surface map...

We're right now in limbo...but it's a good limbo...and don't be surprised if some areas on the KS side are 50 this afternoon...those westerly winds mean we could add another 5 degrees over the next few hours and aside from a few clouds...we're in good shape for the rest of the day...

Tomorrow we're supposed to get a more potent front come in and drop the temps...the NAM wants to latch on to the cold air in the N IA/MN/E Dakotas area and bring it to us during the day...

After that we'll moderate somewhat on TUE but still be cool...then surge into the warm air WED into THU...upper 50s to mid 60s are possible with this airmass if everything works out perfectly and then we'll trend colder later next week and especially next weekend...with the potential of single digit lows and 20's to 30 highs...this will be a modifying arctic airmass coming into the area...and I'm not expecting any additional snowcover to develop to our immediate north/northwest so I don't want to get too crazy with the cold air right now...suffice it t say...colder than today!

That'll do it for today...have a nice week...I'll visit with you again next weekend!

Joe

 

 

 

Good Afternoon and thanks for stopping by the weather blog...

In case you didn't see Rebecca's announcement earlier this week...we're about to go under some major changes on the web side of things...and those changes will directly impact the weather blog...those changes will bring both smiles and frowns to some of you as we take the blog in another direction...

When I conceived this several years ago...I had a certain vision for where I wanted it to go. FOX 4 was one of the first TV stations in the country to utilize this method of reaching out to a select group of readers who had more of a passion concerning weather than our typical viewer (since then numerous stations have picked up the blog concept...locally and nationally, and in some cases with great success which I applaud)...in some ways I've met that vision...in other ways not so much...

On the plus side...while many want more updates...I've carved a niche in giving you information that you can't find anywhere else...I scan dozens of web sites each day to bring you a "one stop shopping" location for you to learn not only about our weather but learn information about other areas of the country and around the world...the links that hopefully you've bookmarked for future reference and the videos that were amazing were all part of that journey...and I hope to continue that in the future...the number of hits that the blog gets astound me...it's also fascinating that during quiet weather periods the number goes down considerably then during active periods how the number will go up by a factor of 20-25...however this is just one tool of ours in the big picture of the stations vast audience and reach.

On the negative side were the trolls...all blogs have them...it's the way of the internet...many asked why I didn't eliminate them...others asked why we didn't ban them...some wondered why they didn't take their medication that day...well the issue with the deleting of posts to me was at what point does it stop? A couple of years ago we did delete posts from the same troll(s) that were repetitive and derogatory in nature. However over the past 18 months or so we've let the "wild west" atmosphere prevail...I think it's fair to say that we're not afraid to take the criticism...we're big people...we can handle it...and trust me we'll get the same in the emails as well on rare occasion. While some blogs, in general, delete at will...we let them exist and speak their minds...and we heard from many of you who frankly were embarrassed by what was in the comment section of the blog area...and I agree...

What I hope will occur when we transition to our new platform are more frequent updates...however again we have to remember what this is in the big scheme of things...for me I'll always love this platform for expressing myself in different "weathery" ways if you will...that will go on...I hope.

Again some of you will not like the changes we undergo...I'm not totally sure how the actual data platform will look...there is so much information on our site now...will it all be on the other site in it's present form...I'm not sure...a lot will be. I can tell you that we'll be partnered with one of the webs BEST weather platforms that many of you will be familiar with...and that I find exciting...others will find that the reading of the blog will become an even more likable experience as well...

OK now lets talk weather...this morning if KC would've had a 240 story skyscraper...you would've gotten in on the ground floor with temperatures in the middle 20s...and by the time you got in an elevator and reached the top floor the temperature would've been about 55 degrees...very impressive inversion this AM thanks to 1) snowcover and 2) a warm-bubble of air just above the surface that moved through the region near daybreak...the sounding that was sent up from the NWS in Topeka...clearly showed it...the RED lines are the temperature traces as the balloon went up this morning...



See how the red line pokes out far to the right...that's a sign of the air temperature warming as the balloon went higher and higher...and if this bubble of warm air would've been stationary...we'd be in the 60s today as that warmer air mixed down to the surface...but alas the bubble of warmth is gone...temps at that level now are closer to freezing and as a result our temperatures are in the 40s and steadying out as some low level cold air advection starts to get underway...

The promised warm up is still coming...delayed perhaps but still coming...temps should moderate somewhat on TUE and then warm nicely into WED and THU...there will be a front coming on THU in the PM that may take the edge off the warm on that day...but if we could delay it by a few hours we're looking at a day with highs in the 60s...depends on the timing of the front...then we'll head down hill later in the week and into next weekend.

Concerning storms...not too optimistic about much this week...the last week of JAN shows potential however...so for us winter lovers...we can focus on that for now...somebody asked me if I was worried about my winter forecast a few days ago...and while I wish we'd have twice as much snow that we have at this point...I won't start worrying till the second week of FEB...but it certainly has been a frustrating month...aside from the event yesterday.

That'll do it for now..I'm knee deep in the preparation of a presentation I'm giving for a seminar later this week...conducted by the NWS and MARC...I'll be talking about TV's role in the warning process...so I'm putting together my first powerpoint display...the framework is done...now I'm going back and adding effects etc...it won't be great...but it's a good learning step for the future.

Have a great weekend.

Joe

The snow that fell lasted about 4-5 hours with amounts ranging from a dusting to upwards of 2+" on the SW side of the metro...here at the station we had about 1 1/4"...at my house a pinch more than 2 1/4"...Excelsior Springs had about 1 1/2" ...here are some other totals...keep in mind these are through about 9AM...so some areas SE of KC may have had a bit more...

Before I get to the future weather scenario...the folks at the NWS did a phenomenal write-up concerning the cold weather yesterday...click on that link...a write up after my own heart...and you get a feel for what happened elsewhere...

Let's talk about this historic cold that moved through the country...there were numerous record low temperatures set...and whenever International Falls hits some record lows during this time of the year...that's impressive...Waterloo, IA set there all time JAN low and tied their all time low at -34. Cedar Rapids fell to -29 yesterday...setting an all-time record low for them...remember all the devastating flooding they had last spring...what a past 12 months for that area!

Yesterday it was colder in Chicago than it was in the North Pole...-6 in Chicago vs +6 in the North Pole...I believe the Chicago area has been below zero since 10PM WED night...as of this writing O'Hare is still -1...so they're now on the 39th hour of sub-zero temperatures...the record is 100 hours straight set in DEC 1983

Meanwhile in Maine...an unofficial report came in this morning of -49 (near Depot Mtn.). If this is verified...this will represent an new all-time low for the entire state!

Nationwide...yesterday was the third coldest (looking at the combination of population density and heating degree days)...and today may be in the top 5...so what this means is that 3 of the top 5 coldest days this decade have come so far this winter!

Let's head up towards Alaska...where things have temporarily changed for the better...and the change has been dramatic Birch Lake, AK has gone from -52 to +54...a 106 degree change off there lows from a about 10 days ago...Fairbanks tied their record high today at 45...remember they were close to -45 last week and there have been a handful of record highs in interior Alaska today!

Onto our weather...the main forecast issues being the temperatures as a warm bubble of air comes overhead tonight into tomorrow morning...this air....close to 50 degrees aloft tomorrow AM means temperatures should be steady later on...if not rise overnight...but another cold front is heading our way tomorrow...so what warmth we get will have to be attained during the 1st half of the day...because temperatures will be steady in the PM tomorrow and then drop a bit on SUN...so essentially 40s for tomorrow and 30s on SUN into MON as well...before the warmth finally gets far enough to the east to affect us...this should affect us from TUE till THU AM...before another shot of cold air...not as strong as this previous one...moves into the area sometime on THU...this means a couple more cold days to end next week...followed by another brief moderation...and then more cold air...

In terms of large scale storminess....none is showing up for the next week to ten days...the GFS does have a little something going on later next week associated with the next cold air shot...but their is little ensemble support for it.

A lot of folks, up north, were takinig boiling water and throwing it into the extremely cold air over the past few days...the end result of that is this video...

---

Here is another view from the NWS in Bismarck, ND...and finally an explaination on the process!

That's it for today...enjoy the snow fast...there's so little moisture content in it that it will melt fast tomorrow AM as temperatures go above 32!

Joe

The arctic blast has arrived with temperatures dropping some 20 degrees over a few hours this morning.  As of 1pm we are at 17 at KCI with a wind chill of -1.  Winds picked up as the front moved through and will remain between 15-20 mph through the afternoon hours, gusting higher.  Later tonight winds should decrease some as high pressure moves closer to the region.  Due to the fact the air is SO COLD and the winds will be just high enough, a wind chill advisory has been issued from 9pm tonight through 10am Thursday.  Lows tonight will drop below zero for most areas north of I-70 and single digits lows abover zero are forecasted for areas south of there.  Tomorrow high pressure will move just about overhead causing our winds to decrease to very light or even calm throughout the day.  Due to lack of mixing, I don't think we'll warm up much tomorrow at all, with most spots seeing highs in the single digits or lower teens.

Friday morning we'll see a return of southerly winds, which will allow us to warm up slowly but surely heading into the weekend.  Even though we'll start off around zero degrees Friday morning, expect a healthy warmup during the day to the 20s and 30s.  By the weekend we should see highs back around 40 degrees.  The warm up continues next week with highs by mid-week into the 60s!

Stay warm today and tonight...bundle up...and don't forget about your pets! 
-Karli

What a cold start to the day today!  High pressure built in across the region overnight and caused our temperatures to cave towards sunrise.  Readings dipped into the single digits and below zero for our lows.  Here are a few of the lows from around the viewing area:

Moberly, Kirksville: 0
St. Joseph, Warsaw, Chillicothe: 3
KCI: 4
Lee's Summit, Olathe: 5
Lawrence: 6
Downtown KC, Warrensburg, Sedalia, Whiteman AFB, Topeka: 7

Feel free to add your morning low!

To make myself (and hopefully you) feel better about the cold air I went and looked up some of the temperatures and wind chills from this morning in Minnesota.  The minimum wind chill for the Twin Cities NWS was -46 degrees in Glenwood, MN and St. Paul had a wind chill this morning of -35 degrees!  OK, now I feel better!

Click here to see the other cold spots

Temperatures will most likely warm up after midnight tonight as winds will return out of the south.  Tonight into tomorrow morning there is a chance for more flurries or light snow as this next storm approaches...but just like the passing of the last clipper, the best chance for accumulations will be well to the north.  The next clipper arrives tomorrow and will trail a cold front through tomorrow morning and early afternoon for areas south of Kansas City.  Behind this next front is even colder air that will stick around through Friday.  Lows Thursday morning will be below zero!  Highs by Thursday afternoon will most likely only be in the lower teens or even single digits. 

Relief from the bitter cold will arrive as early as Friday night and last through the weekend and into early next week as well.  Weekend highs will be in the 40s, next week we'll see highs in the 50s...a welcomed change after a three day stretch of below average temperatures. (average high/low this time of the year is 35/17)

Happy Tuesday Everyone!
-Karli

The clipper system continues to race east this afternoon...but is still producing a lot of snow to our north and ushering in much colder and windier conditions to our neck of the woods for this afternoon and evening.  As I type this the snow continues to fall in Iowa and Minnesota.  One of my friends took a long weekend trip home to St. Paul to visit family and is now stuck there today due to the bad road conditions.

Click here to see her family's house earlier today (and it's still snowing)

What normally takes less than 30 minutes to drive took her an hour!  She decided since all of Iowa was pretty much under a blizzard warning that she would wait it out a day to travel back here to Kansas City.  I bring this up for a couple of reasons.  1. It shows how fast/hard the snow is falling and 2. allows me to bring up some winter safety tips if you are in your car traveling during inclement weather.

First off, check out this map put out by Des Moines, IA National Weather Service...it is the snowfall depth through 2pm today.  They've already received over 4 inches in some spots since this morning and it continues to fall.  Also Des Moines NWS is reporting blizzard conditions with drifting snow starting to occur in open areas of roadways.  I just checked out the Twin Cities area too, and just like the Des Moines NWS, they are reporting anywhere between 2-4" of new snow since this morning along with winds increasing which will blow the snow around later today.

These hazardous weather conditions bring me to my next point...which is getting around safely in your car during winter weather.  I know some people, myself included, tend to forget some simple safety tips for traveling during the winter months....especially when we haven't had much snow around here lately.  First off, avoid travel outside if at all possible...it is the safest thing to do.  However, if you must travel there is a great page put out by FEMA that details some guidelines to follow... click here to read further.

On to our weather, not nearly as active (snow wise) but still will be pretty interesting temperature wise this week.  Today we topped out in the upper 40s for the metro and now that the front is through, we'll see the cold air advection set in along with winds increasing to advisory level.  There is a wind advisory in place until midnight tonight and we'll see wind gusts possibly above 50 mph! 

Click here to see if you are under that advisory

This will last through tonight before our winds shift again out of the south late Tuesday, causing our temperatures to either remain steady Tuesday night or start to rise after midnight on Wednesday ahead of the next clipper system set to move through the plains.  This next system will bring MUCH colder air to the region for Wednesday evening through Friday midday.  Lows Thursday and Friday morning will be very close, if not below zero...and highs will be well below average as well(Thur: 10, Fri: 20).

As far as precipitation, chances look pretty bleak for the rest of this week and the weekend.  We may be able to squeak out a few flurries on Wednesay, with the best chance further north (similar to today) but besides that chance, there isn't anything showing up through at least Sunday.

I hope everyone stays warm tonight (hold on to your hats!) and for the end of the week as well.
-Karli

Good evening...took the afternoon off from the blog today...really everything in the fast moving flow is still going according to my plans...I underestimated the warm-up today by 3-5 degrees but it's all good...usually when I'm wrong for a temperature forecast it's because I'm on the low side of things...I thought we'd have a bit of weak cold air advection this afternoon...not the cast as these little wind shift lines move through the area...winds now are out of the north...temps may drop another 5-8 degrees before steadying out with a return to SW winds and cloud cover moving into the area...

Precip update...still none for 2009...15 straight days without anything...this is the driest start since 1986...when we had to wait till the 18th for precip...back in 1981 we waited till the 31st...then we had .49"...in 1954 we waited till the 13th.

Concerning precip tomorrow...if there is anything it should be very light...I'll maintain a 30% chance of some light rain or even a little mix...perhaps some flakes towards the IA border as a clipper moves through NC/NE MO...usually with these things the precip is N/NE of the vort track...however just to be on the safe side I won't change anything...my guess on timing is mid AM till about 3PM at the latest...whatever it is will be very light and with temperatures for the "event" above freezing...should cause no problems...DH will watch things closely for you tomorrow AM...oh and one other thing...even if we get nothing tomorrow AM the atmosphere will be saturating so when the cold air moves in later PM...may be able to squeeze some flakes out of the moist air tomorrow eve/night.

Cold front moves in later PM with falling temps and blustery NW winds 20-40 mph possible...temps by TUE AM down into the lower teens to 15...cold air departs TUE evening...temps rise during the overnight TUE into WED AM..then we await the true arctic air that I've talked about for about 7-10 days now...depending on the timing of the arctic air...a delayed frontal arival may allow strong downsloping warmth to move in to start the day WED...IF the front holds off till later WED...we may soar into the 50s...earlier in the day and we'll be in the 30s...with falling temps as the 5K temperatures crash WED eve/night!

Take a look per the EURO...


Now take a look at how quickly it moves out...this is for next SAT with the potential for moderating temps to kick off the next weekend...


If this works out...take a look up towards western Canada...notice how the air there is not nearly as cold...we may enjoy a few mild days in a row after the cold plunge...as I mentioned yesterday...the models have a tendency to warm things up quickly so there may be one other weaker Canadian front to deal with next weekend...but I'll let the folks this week deal with that scenario...

The coldest should be FRI AM...EURO supports sub-zero lows...thankfully without snow cover...or else we'd be 10-15 below...as is I'll go with -3 for now...the GFS is fast to move this airmass out early FRI AM with W/SW winds bringing in less cold air FRI AM...I'll be going with the slower solution for now...

Let's go off on some tangents shall we...for the 1st 11 days of the month...Fairbanks, AK is close to 33 degrees below average...the high today was -35 with a low of -45...Good news...they're digging out of it this week...temps are heading above zero as early as TUE with a run towards 30 possible next weekend. Barrow, AK on the other hand is only 3+ degrees below average but they were due...in DEC their temperatures were 11 degrees above average in NOV +5 degrees and +8 in OCT...which is impressive...I bring this up there was an article int he Russian Newspaper Pravda saying how it's not the warming but the cooling that is an issue...read away.

For you snow lovers here is some information on where you should relocate too...Grand Rapids, MI is now up to 77" for the season...that's 42" above average...this exceed already with the winter only starting in a sense their average for an entire season...Flint is up to 44" which is 24" above average and Alpena is 34" above average...Bismark, ND is 31" above average with Blizzard warnings in effect...



And finally...what's life like in the Antarctic regions...take a look when they have -100 windchills and Condition 1 alerts... this video is a few years old...saw it for the first time last night...thought you might be interested...pretty darn neat huh!



That'll do it on a SUN night...any forecast updates will be on the newscasts tonight

Have a great week

Joe

Well it was nice while it lasted...even though we didn't get to 60 @ KCI yesterday it sure felt great...temps did in fact exceed 60 in the Downtown area...63 there and Sedalia hit 66...just wonderful...and once again many were out enjoying the mildness...and today well not so much...

Temps are struggling as expected...the sun is making more of an appearance this afternoon as expected...so temps will muster the upper 20s or so before the day is done...then quickly fall off this evening...as a cold but not unusually cold night is ahead for the region...there were some brief snow showers near daybreak this AM...especially along and south of the I-70 corridor on the MO side down to US 50...but they were brief and perhaps some had a bit of a dusting and that's about it...

Here is the visible picture taken about 1 hour ago...the snow field has increased across IA and parts of NE...last night a nice little wave was tracking across central/southern IA...this wave produced up to 9" of snow in an area where I believe 2-4" was expected...that storm was able to create mesoscale banding...it's nearly impossible to forecast the placement of those features until you see the radar blossom...figure out where the bands are setting up and then whether or not they're moving at all...if they're stationary...watch out as it could snow hard and fast to bust a forecast accumulation in no time at all...


The snowcover is going to be vitally important for the temperatures as the week goes along...there is some real potential of areas to the N/NE of the region...up towards IA, for example, to see lows of -10 to -20 degrees...especially THU or FRI AM depending on the centering of these Arctic highs coming through...

The data this afternoon is confirming my forecast concerning trends in the temps from this AM...which is a good thing if you read my blog from earlier today...

For the metro the coldest air looks to be on THU/FRI AM...then we'll start digging our way out of the cold later FRI...perhaps(?) significantly...although despite the EURO's attempt to warm things up towards the end...I more often than not see the models too quickly take us out of these regimes...and miss out on another disturbance(s) caught in the flow dragging down additional cold air chunks...

Stepping back...concerning Monday...the NAM is getting somewhat more interesting concerning the potential of a light precip event quickly zipping through the area...the GFS isn't quite on board yet...and I'm not either...and will probably wait till later tonight to up my rain/snow chances if needed...but let that serve as a heads up for you.

Lets talk about Chicago...where the snow keeps coming...yesterday an additional 4.8" @ O'Hare...they are now up to some 26"...which is the most they've had this early in the snow season since 2000 (31.7")...the average there through 1/10 is 13.1"...edit w/new info...now up to 36" for the year with 8.4" today....

With all this cold weather and associated large and strong areas of High Pressure moving through the region...it may be interesting to see how high your home barometer goes...

Per the GFS the pressure on FRI AM gets to near 1047 mbs...or 30.91"...the EURO is close to that as well...perhaps closer to 30.80"...regardless...lots of dense cold air here at the surface...just as an FYI for you...the EURO is forecasting our January thaw to move in around the 20th or so...we'll see about that...

Concerning precip...the GFS very simply gives us .04" after MON of this week...that's through the 26th (12Z)...we're about a 6 hour drive at this point from the snows this week...so unless we can see about a 300-500 mile shift in the track of the Jetstream/surface lows...it's going to be tough to get much (aside from any weird thing on Monday)

That's about it...oh before I leave you...take a long look at the moon tonight...it'll be about 14% bigger and 30% brighter than any other full moon for 2009...that's because the moon is closest to the earth tonight...called a perigee moon.

Thanks for spending part of your Saturday with me and the blog...enjoy the basketball/footballs games today...doesn't look to be a good day for MU/KU...at this point at least

Joe