jeremy_wheeler's Blog

Hurricane Ike is still a category 2 hurricane as of Thursday evening.  I always say that every tropical system is different.  The main feature that sticks out with Ike is its size.  Hurricane force winds extend out over 100 miles from the center.  Tropical storm force winds stretch out about 200 miles.  This is really churning up the waters in the Gulf of Mexico.  NHC mentions in their discussion that a storm surge of 20ft is possible.  I saw a buoy earlier today which showed waves at about 23ft already.  The storm is expected to intensify gradually, but intensity forecasting still needs improvement.   People also need to be aware that the storm may weaken right before landfall.  A lot of storms have done that in the past.  However, even if it weakens the storm surge may still be very high.  Remember, Katrina weakened to a category 3 hurricane, but it delivered category 5 surge to the Mississipi Coast.  The models have a pretty good consenus that it will make landfall just to the west/southwest of Galveston/Houston.  Say a prayer for the folks down there when you get a chance.  Evacuations are under way.