The News Desk

The chase is about numbers.  The top twelve, 80 bonus points, ten races and one champion.  There are two really amazing numbers to me.  The first number is zero.  Zero is the combined number of wins for Tony Stewart, Greg Biffle, Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick and Matt Kenseth. The other amazing number is 18, the combined number of wins of Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson.  Another surprising number is 22, the number of races won so far this season by chase drivers.  So the best of the best is the top twelve. 

Not so fast, the top five are the best of the best this season.  The bottom seven are in the chase, but there haven't been very many inspiring races by the drivers in the bottom seven.  Of the bottom seven Tony Stewart suffered the most.  He had multiple wins in sight, but something always happened to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.  Jeff Gordon showed some promise in some early runs this season, but they haven't shown much in the last few weeks.  As for Harvick and Kenseth, well they just don't seem to be able to establish a plan of attack.  None of the bottom seven drivers are stepping up to the plate. 

The Chase for the Cup is going to come down to Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson.  Of those three Jimmie Johnson looks to be the driver that is moving in the right direction at the right time.  Kyle Busch has been the super star this season.  He has put a beatin' on the other Sprint Cup series drivers. He has had some bumps in the road, but he has been awesome.  Carl Edwards has also had a great season.  Early on he looked like he was going to be the unbeatable foe in 2008.  Then there was that little "alleged" cheating thing.  It took some steam out of their run, but they have come back with some vengeance. 

I must point out, just for my integrity, that anything can happen in the last ten races and if a driver has a couple of runs where they finish in the lower third of the standings, look out.  To win the championship you have to avoid bad luck.  Even if you avoid bad luck that may not be enough.  Jeff Gordon's worst finish last season during the chase was an eleventh place finish and he still finished a distant second to the champ.  In opposite fashion Jimmie Johnson avoided bad luck in the chase last season (and had four wins), and he picked up his second straight championship. 

As I look at the final ten races I can't see anyone else winning the Sprint Cup other than Kyle Busch.  They have a penchant for getting on a hot streak and if they do this will be a very long stretch for the rest of the chase field.  

In chase week one, I do have to go against my conventional wisdom and pick Jimmie Johnson as the winner for week one.  They are on a roll and I don't see anyone stopping them this week. 

Whatever the outcome it is going to be an exciting chase and a wrap-up to a great season.