The News Desk

This all started seven long months ago in Daytona and now it comes down to one race in Richmond.  For 12 drivers it will mean something to race for over the next ten weeks.  For 31 other drivers it becomes a chore, a challenge to hang on for next year and probably a time to try new set-ups, strategies and combinations for 2009.  

If you look at this realistically there are only two drivers that have a shot at gaining enough points to make the chase.  Historically three drivers have done it, Jeremy Mayfield won the Richmond race in 2004 and raced his way in, Ryan Newman did it in 2005 and Kasey Kahne did it in 2006. So looking at it from that perspective, there will be one driver in  and one driver out.    

The driver in the most danger of being out is Clint Bowyer. He is only 17 points ahead of 13th place David Ragan and 48 points ahead of Kasey Kahne.  For Bowyer to clinch a spot all he has to do is  either win or finish second and lead the most laps or third and lead the most laps.

For David Ragan he has to win and lead the most laps, no matter what any other driver does.  Kahne can clinch if he finishes 48 points ahead of Bowyer and 31 points ahead of Ragan to clinch a spot.  

For Greg Biffle and Kevin Harvick it is pretty simple, they just have to take the green flag at Richmond.  For the next four drivers it is a little more complicated. 

No matter what any other driver does for Tony Stewart to clinch a spot he has to Finish 36th or better or finish 37th and lead at least one lap or finish 40th and lead the most laps.  

Matt Kenseth, regardless of what any other driver does, has to finish 26th or finish 28th and lead at least one lap or finish 30th and lead the most laps.

Four-time champion Jeff Gordon has to finish 24th or finish 25th and lead at least one lap or finish 28th and lead the most laps and Denny Hamlin must finish 21st or finish 22nd and lead at least one lap or finish 25th and lead the most laps.

There is always the chance that there will be a huge melee and take out all the drivers that need to clinch a spot and really mess things up.  I don't think that is highly likely, but I would be ready for some surprises.  

When NASCAR developed the chase format, I for one, hated the idea.  I have come to appreciate the chase.  It has done exactly what it was designed to do.  It has created interest in the tail end of the year.  It has created drama in the final race of the season and most importantly it has done away with those seasons when the championship was decided by October.  

My crusade against Kyle Busch has ended.  I acheived my goal of closing the bonus point gap, so this week I return to making a serious pick for this weeks race (like it really matters).   I am going to go with Jeff Gordon to pick up his first win of the year--sounds really odd to say that at this time of the year.  He has run well on short tracks this season and could really use a great run and I think it would boost the confidence of the 24 team going into the Chase for the Cup.  

No matter who your driver is it will be an exciting race on Saturday night full of fireworks and some of those may happen after the race.