DogJ's Blog

From the Wall Street Journal Market Watch - December 11, 2008

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Stung by the loss of more than $2.8 trillion in their net wealth, the nation's households paid down debts in the third quarter for the first time since at least 1952, the Federal Reserve reported Thursday. As of Sept. 30, the total outstanding debt for households shrank at an annualized rate of 0.8% from $13.94 trillion to $13.91 trillion, the Fed said in its quarterly flow of funds report. It's the first decline in household debt ever recorded in the report. Households paid off more mortgage debt than they took on for just the second quarter on record. Mortgage debt fell at a 2.4% annual rate to $10.54 trillion, as foreclosures mounted and fewer new mortgages were taken on. "Paid down debt... for the first time since at least 1952... "! Are you kidding me! 60 years of increasing debt, and now the consumer can't pay it back, Hum. The Great Depression

In early 1930, credit was ample and available at low rates, but people were reluctant to add new debt by borrowing. By May 1930, auto sales had declined to below the levels of 1928. Prices in general began to decline, but wages held steady in 1930, then began to drop in 1931. Conditions were worst in farming areas, where commodity prices plunged, and in mining and logging areas, where unemployment was high and there were few other jobs. The decline in the American economy was the factor that pulled down most other countries at first, then internal weaknesses or strengths in each country made conditions worse or better. Frantic attempts to shore up the economies of individual nations through protectionist policies, such as the 1930 U.S. Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act and retaliatory tariffs in other countries, exacerbated the collapse in global trade. By late in 1930, a steady decline set in which reached bottom by March 1933.

Second, there are structural theories, most importantly Keynesian, but also including those of institutional economics, that point to underconsumption and overinvestment (economic bubble), malfeasance by bankers and industrialists, or incompetence by government officials. The only consensus viewpoint is that there was a large-scale lack of confidence. Unfortunately, once panic and deflation set in, many people believed they could make more money by keeping clear of the markets as prices got lower and lower and a given amount of money bought ever more goods.

The Great Depression was overindebtedness and deflation. Loose credit and over-indebtedness fueled speculation and asset bubbles.[

Does any of this sound familiar?

Those who ignore history are destined to repeat it.